2023 - Year In Review
Looking back on the year and planning for the next
The Global Landscape: A Review of 2022-2023
The Unrest of Recent Years
The years 2022 and 2023 continued the trend of global upheaval, with the Ukraine war significantly impacting the world order. This conflict not only caused societal destabilization but also contributed to the escalating inflation, exacerbating the financial struggles lingering from the pandemic. Politically, the United Kingdom experienced a revolving door of Prime Ministers, Europe protested [a lot] while the United States grappled with its ongoing presidential dynamics.
Ukraine-Russia Conflict
The conflict in Eastern Europe intensified at the start of 2023, with initial expectations of a Ukrainian counteroffensive to reclaim eastern territories. However, this did not materialize, and the war itself seems to be winding down. As we close the year, there are now whispers of a potential resolution. With funding from the Ukraine’s allies drying up, it’s hard to see how either nation breaks through. The war, marked by its high cost in both military and civilian lives, underscores the tragedy of such conflicts. A pointless war.
Economic Turbulence
Inflation, although slowing, continues to impact global economies. Pay attention to the nuanced language surrounding inflation rates. A decrease in the rate of inflation still implies rising prices, albeit at a slower pace. The aftermath of the double-digit inflation rates experienced will not be reversed, and pre-pandemic price levels are unlikely to return. Interest rates have soared, adding financial strain, but recent pauses in rate hikes by major central banks could offer some respite.
Despite economic uncertainties, stock markets, including the Dow Jones and S&P500, have not only shown remarkable resilience, they’ve rallied to the highs. Once again we see how disconnected Wall Street is from Main Street.
Middle East Tensions
Undoubtedly the major development in 2023 was the conflict involving Hamas and Israel, starting on October 7th. This conflict, characterized by its brutality and the tragic impact on civilians of which a significant portion were children, emphasizes the urgent need for a resolution to this long-standing issue.
If the International Institutions are to be taken seriously, they must prioritize a solution to prevent future generations from growing up in a perpetual war zone. We can’t keep having the same conflict repeating every three years.
More War!
Beyond Ukraine and the Middle East, conflicts in Azerbaijan, Yemen, and Ethiopia persist, contradicting the global solidarity seen during the 2020 pandemic. It’s a terrible shame it takes such a major threat to unify us, and the minute it’s gone we go back to conflict.
Keep an eye on the situation between Taiwan and China. The statement by Antony Blinken, US Secretary of State, regarding the U.S.'s stance on Taiwan's independence was significant. Couple that with the strategic importance of Taiwan's semiconductor industry and the US kicking off production at home, we could see China flex.
Looking Ahead to 2024
As we move into the new year we can begin to anticipate the developments of 2024. Several key areas stand out, each poised to significantly influence the global stage.
Global Economic Recovery and Inflation Trends: Nations worldwide will continue to navigate the complex landscape of economic recovery. Key focuses include managing inflation, preventing recession, and adjusting monetary policies. The strategies of major central banks like the Federal Reserve, ECB, and Bank of England will be critical. Furthermore, historically, rate cuts following aggressive rate hikes have led to stock market tumbles.
Geopolitical Shifts in Europe: With a surge in right-wing movements and the European Parliament Elections on the horizon, Europe's political scene is in flux. These shifts could redefine the EU's stance on various issues, including immigration policies, economic strategy, and foreign relations It’s possible that we see a shift from the socialist experiment seen in the past 15 years.
Europe will also be looking at how the theatrical Argentine President Javier Milei attempts to lead his nation out of a country dogged by epic financial mismanagement.
U.S.-China Relations and the Taiwan Issue: As mentioned earlier, the nuanced relationship between the U.S. and China, especially regarding Taiwan and semiconductors, will be a vital aspect of global diplomacy. This dynamic has the potential to significantly impact international relations and the race for technological supremacy.
Middle East Stability and the Israel-Hamas Conflict: The persistent conflict between Israel and Hamas remains a critical issue. Efforts towards peace and regional stability, including the involvement of global institutions, will be crucial in resolving long-standing tensions.
Immigration Challenges in Europe: The surge of illegal immigration seen this year, particularly into Italy and Spain, has become a pressing concern in Europe. The European Parliament has introduced new policies to address asylum. Monitoring how these policies are implemented and their effectiveness in managing the influx of immigrants will be vital, especially in the context of the broader political changes occurring within the EU.
Oh and there’s that small matter of the US election…
2024, like the previous years, is shaping up to be a year defined by economic challenges, political realignments, strategic international relations, and pressing social issues like immigration.
As with any year however it’s important to approach it with hope and belief that you as an individual can make substantial change by focusing on yourself. No matter what happens in the world, it’s important to remember that you can only do so much and your focus should be placed on improving yourself and your family. We are all capable of tremendous things when we ignore the noise and focus on what matters.
With that in mind I leave with you this. The world is safest it’s ever been. Poverty is the lowest it’s ever been. Healthcare is the best it’s ever been. When you look at things in context, we are the luckiest generation to ever live. So turn off the news, go out, breath in the fresh air and absorb some sunlight. Things are good.
Happy New Year!
